Introduction

If you look only at revenue, the Russian jewellery market in 2025 “grew”. If you look at the number of purchases, it contracted. Both are true at once, which is why the headline “the market is growing” so often misleads.

On Sokolov’s estimate, turnover reached 493.3 bn ₽ — 7.3% more than a year earlier. The average ticket rose to 10 075 ₽ (+11%). Units sold fell: about 89 million, roughly −3%. A year earlier, money growth had been 25.6% — the pace is already different.

For polished diamonds this is not background noise. When gold and labour eat the budget, the buyer decides again: whether a stone is needed, of what size, natural or grown, or whether a lighter piece with no setting is the better buy. In premium the bet is different — origin, rarity, service. In mass, it is accessible sparkle and an occasion.

Another trap is the phrase “diamond market” itself. A chain’s till, sales of polished stones and purchases of rough live on different calendars. What follows is a reading through the counter and the buyer’s wallet: money, metal, the setting, trust. This text does not value a specific stone and does not make investment promises.

Method and sources

Desk research of open publications by Sokolov, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, retailers and trade media. Cut and colour are treated through OctoNus and related BrillPulse notes. The full list is in the bibliography.

One caveat, and it matters: chain figures are not a census of the country; the accounting price of metal is not the cost of a ring; Sokolov’s 493.3 cannot be added to the Ministry of Finance’s “up to 540” — those are different frames. Here, rough diamond means feedstock; brilliant / polished diamond means a cut stone. The scenarios at the end are working hypotheses with conditions for falsification, not a price forecast.

Three markets that get mixed under one headline

Jewellery retail sells a finished object: metal, setting, labour, brand, rent and tax. Even an engagement ring is not “a carat on the exchange”, but a piece plus a deadline, a size and trust in the seller. Retail turnover shows the consumer wallet. It is not the volume of the polished-diamond market.

The market in polished stones is stricter: shape, mass, colour, clarity, certificate, proportions, availability, channel. Two stones of the same weight can cost and look different. How the visual side of cut is structured is in the OctoNus note.

Rough — mining, sorting, cutting, export, stock — lives on yet another cycle. Ring sales in a quarter need not match the movement of rough at the producer. Mix those levels and it is easy to read into Russian till growth something the data do not contain.

Russia 2025: more money, fewer purchases

Sokolov’s picture is familiar: revenue was collected from a dearer purchase, not from a crowd of new buyers.

This does not mean everyone “moved to premium”. The ticket is lifted by the metal price, the mix, promotions and the gift season. But the direction for the diamond category is hard: visits are rarer and dearer — the product has less right to be “just a setting with no explanation”.

For one budget, light gold, silver, cubic zirconia, lab-grown and a purchase with no stone compete. What wins is not the “correct” stone, but the one that closes the job: a gift, an occasion, a gesture, a starter jewellery box.

Metal rewrites the price tag

In 2025 Sokolov recorded an 8.7% fall in unit sales of gold jewellery and a 21.8% fall in gold-category turnover. The Bank of Russia reported gold prices up 25% and silver up 89%. Between the quote and the counter sit inventory, the exchange rate, weight, markup and discount. There is no direct formula. But a dear gram narrows the room to manoeuvre.

A buyer with a fixed sum sees this in grams and in size. Weight can be cut, metal swapped, instalments taken — or the purchase abandoned. In a diamond ring a further bargain appears: keep the metal and shrink the stone; keep the size by going lab-grown; move to another price corridor.

Silver took 71% of unit sales in Sokolov’s review data. At the bottom of the market, jewellery remains a frequent emotional good. Money, though, pulls more strongly toward gold, weight and expensive settings. Hence the sense of two shores: frequency at the bottom, a rare expensive purchase at the top. The middle did not die — it stopped selling on inertia. It needs a reason to choose this piece, now.

Q1 2026: the same logic, quieter

In Q1 2026 Sokolov reported money growth of 3.9% and a ticket of 10 806 ₽. A quarter is short: holidays and promotions easily distort the picture. But the ticket is higher again, and this dataset shows no proven acceleration in units.

The Ministry of Finance’s “up to 540” next to 493.3 bn ₽ is not a “second truth” and not an error. It is another frame. For work, a passport of the indicator (what, when, who counted) is more useful than an argument over which figure looks nicer.

Lab-grown is already on the shelf — the only question is an honest comparison

In Q1 2026 Sokolov put grown stones at 25% of jewellery with settings. 585 Zolotoy publicly named 6.9%. The two cannot be averaged: different chains, different denominators. Both figures say the same thing — this is no longer an experiment on the bottom shelf.

The working scheme is dual-shelf: side by side, without euphemisms. Origin, characteristics, metal, size, documents, design, price. Comparing two tags is meaningless if the pieces differ in mount, gold weight and setting parameters. Hiding origin until the buyer’s last question to the salesperson is also a bad idea: trust breaks at the most expensive moment.

A natural stone remains a choice about origin, rarity and symbolism. A grown stone is about a different visual scale for the same money. There is no universally “right” answer. More in the natural vs lab in Russia note.

The contour of law No. 657 and the date 01.09.2026 is a separate legal check for the product card and the tag. A marketing retelling does not replace the rule.

The buyer arrives with an occasion, not with “carat-ness”

Engagement, anniversary, a gift after a child’s birth, a purchase for oneself, the wish to wear a noticeable stone every day — different missions on the same card balance. At a wedding, documents and deadlines weigh more. In self-purchase — design and everyday wear. In an expensive gift — service and a sense of exception.

So it is more useful to ask not “who buys” but “why”. Surveys and motives are gathered in a separate study. The product card should continue the same conversation: first image, purpose and price; then origin and document; then cut details, size, returns. Dumping the whole gemmological dictionary on the first screen rarely helps. Hiding what matters does not help either.

Cut and colour decide whether a person sees “the same” stone

Origin matters, but price and perception are also moved by shape, proportions, symmetry, polish, colour, clarity and setting. OctoNus work shows why equal mass does not guarantee equal light play — see the cut review. For fancy-color, assessment cannot be reduced to “brighter = dearer”; the experimental Cutwise/ML contour is in the fancy-color study.

If natural and lab are compared when they already differ in metal, design, size and price, sales will prove nothing about origin. Comparable pairs are needed, and an understanding of what the buyer actually saw on the day of the deal.

Synthesis: the budget inside the piece is being reallocated

For practice, one price series matters less than the cost structure: metal, labour and setting. The 2025 market is 493.3 bn ₽ on ~89 million units and a ticket of 10 075 ₽. In early 2026 the ticket is 10 806 ₽, money turnover +3.9%. Rising accounting prices of metals raise the entry threshold. Silver supports purchase frequency. Expensive pieces deliver revenue on fewer sales.

Lab-grown closes size and budget. Natural closes origin and service. This is not a war of materials, but different occasions. Counting success as a single “diamonds” turnover is too coarse: the counter, the channel, the price corridor, conversion, refusals and returns are needed.

How to read demand on your own counter

A market-wide figure says almost nothing about why a particular ring stopped selling. It may have been taken off availability, had its photo changed, lost a familiar discount, or had its size run moved. It is especially easy to err when comparing natural and lab: in life they often differ on five parameters at once.

The working unit is not the category “diamonds”, but a comparable SKU group: purpose, shape, metal, weight, stone size, channel, price corridor. Inside that, look at views, basket, try-ons, conversion, refusal. More consultations and fewer orders on the natural option is not always weak demand: the deal may close offline, or the decision simply takes longer.

The salesperson’s job is not to “sell the right origin”, but to find the occasion, the budget and what the person names as primary: size, naturalness, design, deadline, everyday wear. After that, the characteristics become an answer, not a lecture.

Scenarios and hypotheses

Limitations

Chain figures change after publication and reflect those chains’ structure. 25% and 6.9% are not a national average. ~89 million is an estimate, not a full register. There is no public split of 493.3 bn ₽ by origin of all settings. Metal-price growth is background, not the cost of a ring. This text is not legal advice on No. 657.

Conclusions

1. Jewellery retail, the polished-diamond market and rough are different axes; they cannot be substituted for one another.
2. In 2025 money grew and units contracted: 493.3 bn ₽ (+7.3%), ticket 10 075 ₽ (+11%), about 89 million units (≈ −3%).
3. Metal forces a choice among weight, design and setting.
4. Lab-grown is already in public counter statistics; chain shares are not a market-wide average.
5. In the diamond category, a clear comparison wins: origin, quality, design, price.

FAQ

Is the diamond market in Russia growing? In roubles, jewellery retail is growing: Sokolov put 2025 at 493.3 bn ₽ (+7.3%). That is a signal about jewellery, not a ready estimate of sales of loose polished diamonds.

Why is the ticket rising while pieces fall? In 2025 the ticket was +11% to 10 075 ₽, units roughly −3%. Prices, metal, promotions and the assortment mix all play a part.

What is dual-shelf? A transparent counter: natural and grown stones side by side — with origin, characteristics, documents and the full price.

Does lab-grown replace a natural diamond? For some jobs — yes, for others — no. Size, budget, origin and the meaning of the purchase weigh differently.

Why does cut matter? It changes how the stone looks and plays. It should be read together with shape, colour, clarity, setting and documents.

Bibliography

1. Sokolov. Open reviews of the Russian jewellery market for 2025 and Q1 2026.
2. Bank of Russia. Gold and silver price dynamics; published changes of +25% and +89%.
3. Ministry of Finance of Russia. Public statements; the “up to 540” indicator is a different frame and is not to be added to 493.3.
4. Federal law No. 657; current wording and clarifications toward 01.09.2026.
5. BrillPulse. Russian jewellery market 2025–2026.
6. BrillPulse. Who buys diamonds: surveys and motives.
7. BrillPulse. Natural and lab-grown diamonds in Russia.
8. BrillPulse. Diamond cut and OctoNus.
9. BrillPulse. Two ML versions for fancy color.